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09.07.2021 09:32 AM
Hot forecast for EUR/USD on July 9, 2021

The single European currency was growing almost all of yesterday. It was not able to compensate for all its losses incurred over the previous couple of days, but the growth is still noticeable. And apparently, this very rebound was expected. At the same time, the single European currency actually ignored the American macroeconomic statistics. It ignored not just statistics, but also the data on the labor market, which turned out to be relatively good.

The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits increased by 2 thousand, while it should have been reduced by 51 thousand. But these are only initial applications, and repeated ones are much more important, the total number of which has decreased by 145 thousand. The reduction was expected to be 104 thousand. Formally, the data came out slightly worse than forecasts, and instead of a total reduction of 155 thousand, they received a decrease of 143 thousand. But the difference is insignificant, and we are still talking about reducing the number of applications, which indicates a further improvement in the situation on the labor market. Nevertheless, it seems that the rebound and local correction have already ended, so now the dollar can calmly strengthen again. After all, by and large, the trend for the growth of the dollar, launched by the latest decisions of the Federal Reserve System, has not gone anywhere. It is still an integral part of the current market situation.

Number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits (United States):

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The EUR/USD currency pair bounced off the support area of 1.1800 during the last trading period, as if the proper volume of short positions was not enough at the time of the attempt to break the level.

The market dynamics still has high indicators, as well as the coefficient of speculative operations.

In the current location of the quote, the rollback process is visible, but at the same time, a downward interest is traced.

In order for the volume of short positions to get on the path of growth, and sellers have a chance for a subsequent downward move, the quote needs to return below the level of 1.1800. In this case, a subsequent downward movement in the direction of 1.1700 is not excluded.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, it can be seen that technical instruments are still focused on a downward move, signaling a sale.

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Dean Leo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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