Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1448 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point to sell euros. As a result, the pair fell by 25 pips.

Yesterday's remarks by Federal Reserve representative Goolsbee on inflation and interest rates benefited U.S. dollar bulls, putting significant pressure on the euro. Signals of persistent inflationary pressures and uncertainty about its temporary nature push traders toward assets traditionally regarded as safer during periods of economic uncertainty, namely the dollar.

Today, the market will closely monitor sentiments in the Eurozone. The indices of business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, as well as the composite PMI index for June, could be decisive in determining the euro's future trajectory. Optimistic data that exceeds analysts' forecasts could support the euro, signaling the resilience of the region's economy and sustained consumer and investment demand.

The manufacturing sector is particularly sensitive to PMI index publications, as it currently bears the brunt of the Eurozone's economy. It often reflects changes in the global economic landscape first by tracking factors such as new order volumes, production levels, employment, and inventory. A detailed analysis of this data will allow us to assess how effectively Eurozone enterprises are coping with the existing challenges posed by the situation in the Middle East.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy euros upon reaching an entry point around 1.1438 (green line on the chart) with a target to rise to the level of 1.1468. At 1.1468, I plan to exit the market and sell euros in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. One can only expect the euro to rise after receiving strong data from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1417 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.1438 and 1.1468.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1417 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1384, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy back in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 20-25 pips in the reverse direction from that level. Pressure on the pair today will return only in the event of very weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1438, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.1417 and 1.1384.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;

Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;

Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.