Trade Review and Advice on Trading the British Pound

The test of the 1.3481 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a proper entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined by only 10 points.

In the second half of the day, speeches are scheduled from several Federal Reserve representatives: Thomas Barkin, Christopher Waller, and Lisa D. Cook. Amid significant uncertainty related to the new trade policy of the Trump administration, it is difficult to predict the exact tone of their statements. Their comments could substantially impact GBP/USD market dynamics, as traders will closely monitor any signals regarding the Fed's future course.

However, given the challenging situation the U.S. economy may face, it is likely that Barkin, Waller, and Cook will adopt a cautious tone. They may attempt to adjust market expectations by emphasizing readiness to adapt and maintain flexibility in decision-making. Their key objective will be to provide clear communication to help market participants understand which factors will shape future Fed actions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy the pound upon reaching the entry point around 1.3503 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 1.3535 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3535, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move from that level). A rise in the pound today can be expected after a dovish Fed stance.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3481 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3503 and 1.3535 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell the pound after a breakout below the 1.3481 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3440, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move from that level). Pressure on the pound will return today in the event of hawkish comments and the absence of signals pointing to rate cuts.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3503 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3481 and 1.3440 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important for Beginner Forex Traders

Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions with extreme caution. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit — especially if you do not apply proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.