Trade analysis and tips for trading the euro

The test of the 1.1584 price occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair rose by 20 points.

The start of the day was marked by sustained demand for the euro due to positive results from the Eurozone manufacturing PMI, which exceeded analysts' expectations. Final data for March showed the index at 51.6 points, surpassing the preliminary estimate.

Next, special attention will be focused on the U.S. ADP private sector employment report. At the same time, market participants will closely analyze the retail sales report, which had been quite weak at the beginning of the year. These metrics are key elements of economic activity. Strong growth in these indicators may point to solid consumer demand and employment, and consequently to stronger economic development, which is favorable for the dollar.

The release of the U.S. ISM manufacturing index will also be important. This indicator provides a comprehensive assessment of the manufacturing sector. Values above 50 indicate expansion, while readings below this level signal contraction.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1615 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1656. At 1.1656, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. A rise in the euro today can only be expected after weak U.S. labor market data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to move upward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1581 price level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1615 and 1.1656 can be expected.

Sell signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1581 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1540, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to move downward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1615 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1581 and 1.1540 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price where you can buy the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price where you can sell the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.