Trade Review and Tips for Trading European Currency

The test of the price at 1.1633 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct sell entry point for the euro. As a result, the pair only declined by 10 pips.

The escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East, fueled by military actions between the U.S. and Iran, has affected the euro. Investors are once again considering the dollar as useful, especially amid the risk of another peace agreement falling through. Ongoing military clashes and the unpredictability of developments in the Middle East create an atmosphere of uncertainty that will continue to pressure risk assets and support demand for the U.S. dollar.

Today, in the first half of the day, attention should be paid to European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech and the ECB's report from the monetary policy meeting. Investors and analysts will closely examine any hints about the ECB's future steps, especially regarding potential interest rate hikes this summer. The rhetoric is expected to focus on curbing inflation, which could support the euro. Any signals that inflationary pressures remain steady or even intensify may strengthen expectations of monetary policy tightening.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1625 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.1656. At 1.1656, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro back, anticipating a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth for the euro can only be expected after good news regarding the agreement. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1595 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase can be expected towards opposing levels of 1.1625 and 1.1656.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1595 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1561, where I plan to exit the market and buy back immediately (anticipating a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair could return at any moment today. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline from it.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1625 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease can be expected towards opposing levels of 1.1595 and 1.1561.

What the Chart Indicates:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where take profit can be set or profits can be locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where take profit can be set or profits can be locked in, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it's important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note:

Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.