Trade Analysis and Advice for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1538 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair dropped by 20 points.

Inflation data in the eurozone for February fully matched analysts' expectations. The headline index rose by 1.9%, while core prices increased by 2.4%. Keeping inflation near the European Central Bank's 2% target is a positive factor for economic development.

In the second half of the day, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data will be released, including the core PPI excluding volatile components such as food and energy. These indicators are important for analyzing inflation trends, as they reflect business costs and can serve as early signals of upcoming changes in consumer prices. PPI, as a key indicator, shows wholesale price dynamics. An increase in this index may indicate rising production costs, which could later be passed on to consumers through higher prices for finished goods, contributing to higher inflation in the country.

However, despite the significance of these statistics, they are less important than the FOMC decision. The FOMC rate decision, along with statements by the Fed Chair on future monetary policy plans, will shape market participants' expectations and determine the trajectory of the U.S. dollar.

For intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro today around 1.1553 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1603. I plan to exit at 1.1603 and also consider selling the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Euro growth can be expected after weak U.S. economic data.

Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above zero and just starting to rise from that level.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1525 while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth can be expected toward 1.1553 and 1.1603.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Sell the euro after it reaches 1.1525 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1478, where I plan to exit and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move in the reverse direction). Selling pressure on the pair could return at any moment.

Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below zero and just starting to move down from that level.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro in case of two consecutive tests of 1.1553 while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1525 and 1.1478 can be expected.

Chart Legend

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line: Suggested Take Profit or exit level, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line: Suggested Take Profit or exit level, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator: Important to follow overbought and oversold zones when entering the market

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders

Beginner traders should exercise extreme caution when entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.