On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday and secured above the resistance level of 1.3526–1.3539. Thus, the bulls may continue their offensive on Wednesday toward the next resistance level of 1.3604–1.3620. A rebound of quotes from this zone will favor the US dollar and some decline toward 1.3526–1.3539. Consolidation of the pair above 1.3604–1.3620 will increase the probability of further growth of the British currency.

The wave situation has shifted to "bullish." The latest upward wave broke the previous peak (and continues forming), while the last completed downward wave did not break the previous low. Geopolitics had provided bears with almost complete dominance in the market for two months, after which the geopolitical backdrop began to shift in a more favorable direction, giving bulls confidence. For several weeks, the pound traded sideways between 1.3177 and 1.3465, but this week it managed to break out of that range.

The news background on Tuesday was quite weak. The only notable event was a speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. However, like Christine Lagarde, the head of the British regulator did not report anything important. Traders were hoping for hints about the Bank of England's decision at the next monetary policy meeting, but did not receive any. Thus, nothing significant happened in the world on Tuesday. However, last night Donald Trump simply stated that the war in the Middle East is over. Traders received no details, as the American president did not consider it necessary to provide them. Most likely, this refers to the fact that US strikes on Iran will cease, as "all objectives of the military operation have been achieved." US Vice President J.D. Vance stated this week that negotiations with Tehran could resume in the near future, and the chances of signing an agreement are quite high. Thus, it appears that the situation in the Middle East is moving toward a ceasefire. If a ceasefire can be achieved, it will provide a good basis for a gradual decline in energy prices, something the whole world is currently hoping for. Meanwhile, the US dollar began to experience serious difficulties as soon as the war in the Middle East subsided.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair secured above the descending trend channel, and after several weeks of hesitation, the bulls finally moved into an offensive. Consolidation above the 38.2% corrective level at 1.3540 allows for expectations of continued growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 23.6% at 1.3664. The CCI indicator has formed a "bearish" divergence, which may allow the dollar to slightly improve its position.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more bearish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 3,960, while short positions decreased by 217. The gap between long and short positions is now effectively: 47,000 versus 104,000. For six consecutive weeks, non-commercial traders have been actively increasing sales and reducing purchases, leading to a strong imbalance between long and short positions. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which raises no questions given the geopolitical situation.

I still do not believe in a "bearish" trend for the pound, but now everything depends not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, a correction first began while maintaining a bullish trend, and then the conflict in the Middle East began escalating almost daily. Geopolitics remains the only reason for the growth of the US currency.

News calendar for the US and the UK:

• United Kingdom – Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (18:00 UTC).

On April 15, the economic calendar contains one entry that can be considered relatively important. The impact of the news background on market sentiment may be felt in the evening.

GBP/USD forecast and trading tips:

Selling the pair is possible today if there is a rebound on the hourly chart from the 1.3604–1.3620 level with a target of 1.3526–1.3539. Buying was possible upon a close above the 1.3437–1.3465 level with targets at 1.3526–1.3539 and 1.3604–1.3620. The first target has been reached. Positions may remain open with the second target.

Fibonacci levels are built from 1.3341–1.3866 on the hourly chart and from 1.3012–1.3868 on the 4-hour chart.