Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1690 price level occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move upward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. However, the pair did not manage to develop a significant upward move.

The releases expected in the second half of the day include the U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report as well as inflation expectations data. If the economic figures come in favorable, a quick recovery in demand for the U.S. dollar can be expected. These macroeconomic indicators can influence the trajectory of the dollar, but only if the data significantly deviates from economists' forecasts. Consumer confidence reflects how confident U.S. citizens are in the current economic situation, their willingness to spend, and, consequently, support economic growth. Inflation expectations carry similar weight. Stronger-than-expected data may trigger increased interest in the dollar, while weak figures could lead to its decline.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the level of 1.1698 (green line on the chart), with a target at 1.1716. At 1.1716, I plan to exit the market and also consider selling in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 point move from the entry. Growth in the euro today can only be expected after positive news from the Middle East.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1684 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A move toward 1.1698 and 1.1716 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1684 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1660, where I intend to exit the market and immediately consider buying in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return today if tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1698 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1684 and 1.1660 can then be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or manually closing positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or closing positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making market entry decisions. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you are not using proper money management and are trading large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.