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07.07.2021 10:04 AM
Hot forecast for GBP/USD on July 7, 2021

There is only one explanation for what happened yesterday in the market -- a mass flight to the dollar. Not only the pound, but almost all other currencies were declining. Exceptions can be counted on the fingers of one hand. Moreover, commodities, especially oil, also declined. All this happened at the same time. The dollar began to grow from the very opening of the European session. However, the movement was quite modest, although stable. So, due to the small scale, it was difficult to talk about any global process. But since the opening of the US session, the dollar has forgotten about any modesty and began to move much more confidently, after which it became obvious that we are dealing with a global dollar growth. In such conditions, all sorts of macroeconomic data or other news can be forgotten. Moreover, there was no serious news in sight, and the macroeconomic statistics were ignored. The final data on business activity indices in the United States turned out to be worse than forecasts. The preliminary assessment of the index of business activity in the service sector showed a decrease from 70.4 points to 64.8 points. But in the end, it fell to 64.6 points. The composite index of business activity decreased from 68.7 points to 63.7 points, with a forecast of 63.9 points. So, American statistics rather contradict the very logic of yesterday's events. Everything should have developed somewhat differently.

Composite PMI (United States):

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In this regard, a rather simple question arises - why did the dollar rise sharply? In principle, the growth of the dollar itself is not surprising, since after the announcement of the results of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), it became quite obvious that a trend towards strengthening of the dollar was beginning. But it never occurred to anyone that it would happen in this way. In general, investors are determined to buy the dollar, but trends develop in a slightly different way, and are a somewhat smoother curve. As you can see, there are too many questions, but there are no rational answers to them. Nevertheless, this does not mean that the market has become completely unpredictable. Any trend is accompanied by countless bounces and corrections, and after such a sharp and impressive movement, a rebound must inevitably occur. It is noticeably more modest in scale than the previous movement, but today it is quite possible to expect a weakening of the dollar. And it is quite possible that the reason for the rebound will be the data on open vacancies in the United States, the total number of which should decrease from 9,286 thousand to 9,100 thousand. We should not forget that the unemployment rate in the United States has increased, and the number of open vacancies hints at a rather weak prospect of its decline.

Number of Job Openings (United States):

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During the last trading day, the GBP/USD currency pair showed strong downward interest in the market, as a result of which the pound sterling lost about 0.8% of its value.

The market dynamics from the stage of deceleration went into the acceleration mode, overcoming the average indicator for daily volatility. The speculative operations ratio continues to grow.

Based on the current location of the quote, a rollback is visible, which is due to the oversold status.

It can be assumed that the oversold status will hold back sellers for some time, but in case of a breakdown of the 1.3770 mark, a turn from short positions in the 1.3730 direction can be seen again.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, it is clear that technical instruments have a buy signal on a 1-minute interval due to the rollback stage. Hourly and daily periods signal a sale.

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Dean Leo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2024
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