Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

There were no tests of the levels I indicated in the first half of the day, which prevented market entry. Traders are counting on strong US statistics, which could continue the robust growth of the pair observed during the Asian session. Ahead of us are data on initial jobless claims, changes in US GDP volume, the balance of trade in goods, and changes in the volume of pending home sales. Only indicators above economists' forecasts will prompt dollar buyers to act more actively again, despite all the risks of intervention by the Bank of Japan, which has been quiet for a long time. In the case of weak statistics, the USD/JPY pair could be corrected significantly. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches around 155.67 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the level of 156.15 (thicker green line on the chart). At around 156.15, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Counting on the pair's growth today will only be possible after very strong US GDP statistics. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.49, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upward. We can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 155.67 and 156.14.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the level of 155.49 is updated (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 155.12, where I will exit sales and also open purchases immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of an unsuccessful breakthrough of the daily maximum. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decrease from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell USD/JPY in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 155.67, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market downward. We can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 155.49 and 155.12.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line - entry price, at which you can buy the trading instrument;

Thick green line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or independently take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line - entry price, at which you can sell the trading instrument;

Thick red line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or independently take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very careful when making decisions to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You need to set stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.

nd remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.